conjecture

/kənˈdʒektʃə/ · kuhn-JEK-chuhnoun

A tentative conclusion based on incomplete evidence.

Use conjecture for an explanation or conclusion that appears possible but has not yet been established by sufficient evidence.

What conjecture Really Means

The word becomes easier to use when its closely related senses are separated and compared.

1

Tentative explanation

A possible account of an event that remains unconfirmed because evidence is incomplete.

Example

The explanation is plausible, but for now it is only conjecture.

2

Inference from clues

A conclusion drawn from suggestive observations rather than direct proof.

Example

The date of the settlement remains a conjecture based on pottery fragments.

3

Act of speculating

As a verb, to propose what may be true without claiming certainty.

Example

Researchers conjecture that seasonal flooding encouraged migration.

Use conjecture Naturally

Notice how the surrounding noun or clause reveals the exact shade of meaning.

The explanation is plausible, but for now it is only conjecture.

Without contemporary records, any claim about the ruler's motives remains conjecture.

The team used the newly found fragments to support a conjecture about the building's original purpose.

Precision Matters

Conjecture overlaps with several common words, but each carries a different emphasis.

conjecture

May be an informal conclusion based on incomplete evidence.

vs.
hypothesis

Is usually a clearly stated proposition designed for systematic testing.

conjecture

Emphasises that the conclusion remains tentative or speculative.

vs.
inference

Is any conclusion drawn from evidence or reasoning and may be strongly supported.

conjecture

Often names the tentative idea itself in formal discussion.

vs.
surmise

Often describes a quick conclusion drawn with limited evidence.

conjecture

Can rest on some clues while remaining unproved.

vs.
speculation

More broadly covers ideas formed without firm evidence and may be highly imaginative.

Test conjecture in Context

The conclusion is possible but rests on incomplete and uncertain evidence.

1

Because the proposed migration date rests on a single fragment whose origin is uncertain, the conclusion remains a ___ rather than an established finding.

Prepared byFirst Academy
Editorial responsibilityFirst Academy Academic Team
Updated2 August 2026
Selection and reviewRead our methodology